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Weekend Wager Column - 06/03/2009 ************************************ I work as part of the team at the Secret Betting Club where we uncover exactly which experts, systems and tipsters you should follow to make money betting. As well as proofing dozens of tipsters we also include monthly articles on professional gambling tips and betting strategies. Every article and review we put together is also listed at our new member's website Money Maker Review. ******************************************************************************** 1. Terry Says The big event next week is none other than Cheltenham, which is always a treat for all us racing fans and I’m looking to forward to a cracking time at the festival. Over the 4 days of festival madness we will surely hear about the trazillions of pounds gambled on the event and the amount of bottles of champers quaffed and pints of Guinness drunk. All that aside though and it is of course the pinnacle of NH racing for so many but amongst all the hullabaloo you gotta be watchful not to lose your mind and also some of your hard-earned as its easy to get carried away. I always like to remind myself that a 2/1 winner at Cheltenham still pays out the same as a 2/1 winner on the 9.20 at Wolverhampton on a cold Thursday night in January. You’d be amazed at how many punters forget that! The best way to know what to bet on this festival is to read our Secret Betting Club FREE Cheltenham guide that you can pick up via this link . It features full festival advice from some of the top names in race analysis and tipping such as AW Winners, Dave Renham, Big Mike Marsland, Nick Pullen, Herbie Fogg, Tipping Legends & The Form Analyst. A real edge can be made in some of these races and these are the guys who have done it before at Cheltenham so they know what they are talking about. The bookies go to town for these events as when they think of Cheltenham, they imagine their cash-tills going cha-ching with so many casual punters getting involved. They are quite happy to bend over backwards to lure you with a ruckload of Cheltenham betting specials in order to tempt you further. The best thing to do is to snap them up and use them as risk-free bets which really gets under their skin. Check out www.bet72.com and our own Friday Freebie for loads of those easy money type deals. If you are having a punt over at Cheltenham, all the very best of luck to you! Until next Friday… Terry Allen 2. The Next Week In Betting The FA cup gets down to the business stage with the quarter finals this weekend and while the clear 4 to proceed are Man Utd, Chelsea, Arsenal & Everton, I don’t reckon they will have it all their own way. Fulham face a tricky time at home to all conquering Man Utd and there has been a lot of tittle-tattle this week in the media about Sir Alex’s side going for the quintuplet but I for one don’t buy into that. They only won on penalties on Sunday and just did enough to beat a very poor Newcastle in midweek and I think the FA cup may just be a bridge too far. Fulham or ‘The Cottagers’ as they are known (possibly the worst team nickname ever, but I hear George Michael is a fan) are very strong at home and aside from Hull’s smash and grab raid in midweek they are no pushovers and are big value at 4/1 best priced with Extrabet. I’m having a small tinkle on that as well as a bite out of the 1.7 from Sportingbet on their being under 2.5 goals, as I think it might be a tight affair. Chelsea don’t have an easy game as they are away at Coventry City who I rate as a half-decent team and who deservingly put out a dire Blackburn in the last round. Chelsea may well make a few changes to their team and may not feature everyone’s least favourite drunken left back in Cashley Cole, who many people would be quite happy to see literally ‘sent to Coventry’. The home side’s gaffer, Chris Coleman has just won the manager of the month award and his side are in good form, with a couple of talented youngsters likely to be playing in the Premier league before too long. Whatever happens I can’t see a free-flowing Chelski under new man Guus so the +1 asian handicap at 10/11 with Ladbrokes stands out for me on the championship outfit. Cricket has been in the news for all the wrong reasons all week and it’s great to be able to focus on some on the pitch action. Australia take on South Africa in the 2nd test and I am on the home team to level the series here and will be backing them using the in-play market at Betfair to do so and trading a positive outcome. The Aussie bowling line-up lacks depth and once the Saffers batsmen hit their straps then they should assert their dominance. (Editor’s notes – as it stands as day one approaches its close, SA are 9/1+ on Betfair which Terry suggests is a good bet from a trading angle at least) Another game that may just about have started by the time you read this is the 5th test out in the Caribbean, where England are likely to be so anxious to win they are going to go with 5 bowlers. After watching last weeks run fest though I fear that Strauss could pick himself, KP and 9 bowlers and still not have an attack to take 20 wickets, and the Windies are bound to be motivated to win their first series in 5 years. One player likely to be in is Danish born Amjad Khan who is 5/1 best priced with Hills to be top bowler in this game, which I thought was worth a sneak. As for batsmen, Paul Collingwood is in good nick and at 7/1 with the Tote he jumped out at me as value. I will be laying the draw in this game which is around 2.3 as I write this with Betfair as England have to go for the jugular and will be taking risks. As this series draws to an end, another one begins as India are in New Zealand where I have to fancy the away team even as short as 4/7 with Ladbrokes to take this as they are a class above their hosts. Good luck with whatever you’re having a punt on this week. ******************************************************************************** 3. Tipping Legends Column The feature race of the day run over 3 miles where you cane expect many long priced winners with favourites winning 5 times in the last 15 years. There have been no Irish trained winners in last 15 years, and no 5 year old has EVER won. Only introduced 4 years ago, and is a class 2 chase over 2m 5 f, which is rapidly becoming a favoured race at the Festival attracting quality fields. Over the 4 years most of the winners and placed horses have been in the first 4 in the betting. It is early days, but not a race for outsiders so far! This is another new race, a novice chase over 2m 5 f, again with only 4 running’s, but each winner so far has been aged 7 Handicap Hurdle over 3 miles and often a race subject to huge gambles in the morning, and not one to get involved with if you are of a nervous disposition! 2 of the last 5 winners had SP of 50/1 and there have been only 2 winning favourites in 15 years, whilst only one 5 yr old has won in the last 35 years. This is run over an extended 3 miles and is ridden by amateur jockeys. Take my advice here and go to the bar (if at the races) or make a cup of tea (if at home) as the SP’s of 5 of the last 6 winners read like this: 14/1, 33/1, 12/1, 40/1 & 33/1. The Irish have trained only 1 winner in 25 years and 8-9 year olds have won 80% of the last 35 runnings. The "big one" runs over 3m 2f where we have 5 winning favourites from the last 15 years. Now here is an interesting stat as in the last 25 years no horse that was placed in the previous year’s race has won 12 months later! Horses older than 10 have not won for 40 years and significantly 9 of the last 11 winners were placed at the Festival before. A 2 mile hurdle race for 4 yr old novice hurdles and some very useful stats here with only 2 winning favourites in last 15 years, but 8 winners with SP in single figures! The biggest priced winner in 15 years was at 20/1. Here is the key stat though and 14 of the last 15 winners had won at least twice so experience is vital. A competitive handicap over 2m 1f with only 3 winners that started at SP greater than 16/1 in the last 35 years! Last year’s winner bucked this trend though and started at 50/1! Nicky Henderson has trained an incredible 31 winners, which is 11 more than Paul Nicholls. Visit The Tipping Legends Website
4. The Winabobatoo Weekender I mentioned last week that I was going to give you an “Away Form System” bet each week between now and the end of the season, as they make good long-term profits. Ironically there are no games that meet the criteria for those bets this weekend.
On the 8th December last year, I introduced a new betting system to my members called, “Play Away.” This concentrates on backing the away team when the odds are between 13/10 and 7/4. Since its introduction, this “system” has given 33 bets, finding 17 winners, 16 losers, and has returned 42.41 points to one point level stakes’ bets, for a profit on turnover of 28%.
We will venture into this group for our bet this weekend. There are 6 of these cases for me to pick from. It’s always a dilemma for me to choose just one, as the chances are that probably 3 out of the 6 will win, so it’s a toss of a coin as to whether the one I pick wins or loses! There is no way of having “one certain winner” each week. It would be nice if we could but we always have to work on the balance of probabilities, and that means taking the long-term view.
Peterborough were a successful “Play Away” bet for us when they defeated Leyton Orient in midweek, and they appear to have around a 50% chance of winning at Hartlepool on Saturday. They are available at 11/8 (2.38) with several bookies, so the odds are more than covering the risk. Have a bet on Peterborough to beat Hartlepool at 11/8 (2.38) available with Totesport, BetFred, and Victor Chandler Good luck with your betting. Mike Lindley (www.winabobatoo.co.uk ) Visit The Winabobatoo Website ********************************************************************************
Hi everybody,
Unfortunately I didn't break the +400 points barrier last weekend, but I did break the +50 points barrier in February (+50.02 points profit, 56.8% RoI). The free pick was another winning bet, it really doesn't get better than this:
Btw the membership and the waiting list are now both closed for the rest of the season (it ends in May), but if you want to be on the waiting list for next season, feel free to send me an e-mail.
7/3/2009
BSP/BSS DOUBLE: MANSFIELD – Lewes 1 @1.30 & BROMLEY – Fisher 1 @1.29 (1.67 @Skybet) 6 units
Most of you already know everything about Lewes already, but let's update the stats – 12 league defeats in a row (scored two, conceded 28 in these 12 matches), five handicap defeats in a row (1:3 at Horsham in the Sussex Cup, 0:2 to Wrexham, 0:2 to Cambridge, 1:5 at Crawley, 0:3 to Histon), seven away defeats in a row. They only have one away win this season, 1-4-11, 10:33, they're the worst away team in the league of course. Defender Wallis-Taylor rejoined Bognor, Elliott rejoined Hastings on loan, defender Cullip and forward Cox are both doubtful and their best player Wheeler played the whole match for English Schools under-18s yesterday, so he could feel a bit tired. Copy/paste: ''We haven’t been training properly because the club can’t pay to hire anything and we can’t get on the pitch, which we understand, because so many teams play on it. We have got a third of a pitch to train on which we share with an under-10s side and a Sunday League team. We pay Ł30 for that which for the last two weeks I have paid out of my own pocket''.
Sad times at Lewes. Mansfield are, on the other hand, doing fine since Holdsworth took over as a manager, they already have five wins and only one defeat in 2009 (1:0 vs Crawley, 1:0 at Lewes, 0:0 vs Rushden, 2:1 at Eastbourne, 1:0 vs York, 0:0 vs Kettering, 0:1 at Oxford, 1:0 at Rushden), they're very good at home (9-3-4, 22:15) and although they have a couple of injury doubts (nothing to be afraid of as they have a big squad at the moment), this should still be a comfortable home win. Fisher have lost sixteen matches in a row, they have ten handicap defeats in the last fourteen (0:2 to Bromley, 1:4 at Team Bath, 0:3 to Wimbledon, 0:3 at Wimbledon, 1:3 to Newport, 1:3 at Weston, 0:2 to Braintree, 1:2 at Thurrock, 0:3 at Dorchester, 0:3 at Hampton, 1:2 to Eastleigh, 0:1 to Worcester, 0:1 at Maidenhead, 0:2 to Weston), seven away defeats in a row, they scored five and conceded 37 in the last sixteen. Doherty and Schoburgh are suspended, forward Quistin has left them for Grays, defender Dark and skipper Howe have both left them a couple of weeks ago too and forward Wharton is once again an injury doubt – so no, nothing new at Fisher. Bromley aren't the best team in the BSS of course, but they're good enough for Fisher – they're at full-strength, they've just brought in a new defender, they have two wins and a draw in the last three (2:1 vs Newport, 1:0 va Bognor, 1:1 at Thurrock), three wins and a defeat to mighty Hampton in the last four home matches. Bromley have won 2:0 at Fisher back in December and I expect a similar result. Anything above 1.55 for this double looks fine to me – not the greatest value bet ever, but it should be another winning bet nevertheless.
(1.63 at BetFred btw, 1.62 at Bwin, 1.61 at Blue Square and at BoyleSports btw, 1.56 at Bet365, Coral, Paddy Power, StanJames...) Read our review of Skeeve's service
6. Free £75 in bets courtesy of our friends down under. Who says the Aussies don’t like us in the UK? As Down Under Bookie Centrebet have decided to increase their free bet sign up offer from £20 to a whopping £50, not sure how long this one is around for so don’t miss out. Remember with Centrebet the qualifying bet can be done at ANY odds, so throw another shrimp on the barbie and get cracking! Needless to say we have this all covered by Oddsmatcher, so there really is not excuse! Here is the link you need to use to get the free £50: Centrebet (This is an exclusive link that you have to use to get this offer) Plus they also have a cracking free £25 bet on the Cheltenham Gold Cup offer too and this is open to everyone so once you have signed up and bagged the free £50 you can get a free £25 too, here are all the details.... Centrebet is getting you fired up for the Cheltenham Festival with a £25 Free Bet for the Gold Cup! Place a bet on either: The Smurfit Kapp Champion Hurdle; The Queen Mother Champion Chase; or The World Hurdle And we’ll 100% match the first placed bet with a Free Bet for the Gold Cup, up to £25. Scoring your £25 Free Bet is this simple:
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