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Weekend Wager Column - 07/11/2008

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THE WEEKEND WAGER
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Welcome to this the 2nd ever 'Weekend Wager' free betting column produced by Terry Allen from the Secret Betting Club and Money Maker Review service.

I work as part of the team at the Secret Betting Club where we uncover exactly which experts, systems and tipsters you should follow to make money betting. As well as proofing dozens of tipsters we also include monthly articles on professional gambling tips and betting strategies. Every article and review we put together is also listed at our new member's website Money Maker Review.

The Weekend Wager is designed to be your free guide to the forthcoming weekend's betting opportunities and features free betting advice and articles from a number of hand-picked betting experts.

Keep a look out for The Weekend Wager hitting your inbox's every Friday afternoon.

CONTENTS

1. Terry Says

2. The Next Week In Betting
3. Tipping Legends Column

4. Ask The Legends
5. The Winabobatoo Weekender

6. Skeeve's Non-League

7. Make £26 In This Week’s Free Bookmaker Offer

 

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www.secretbettingclub.com
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1. Terry Says

Welcome back to the Weekend Wager column, which is my regular take on the upcoming betting calendar with a few handy guest articles and bets thrown in for good measure. I should start off by saying thanks for all the positive feedback regarding last weeks debut posting and it was good to get off to a flyer with a few of the sample bets coming in for us.

Last week's sport was dominated by the 20/20 for 20 match last Saturday night. It was a bizarre spectacle that had the feel of a village cricket match with just one major difference... The $20 million riding on it. Unfortunately England did indeed play like village cricketers with $20 million hanging over their heads and were comprehensively outplayed. At least I did manage to spot some value with Samit Patel top scoring at 16/1 as mentioned last week. He may have only made 22 but it was easily the best score in what was a woeful performance from KP’s boys.  Skeeve was very unlucky as his bet succumbed to a 93rd minute last-gasp goal but at least Winabobatoo had better luck, picking out an easy winner from the weekends football card with Sheffield United seeing off Plymouth 2-0 at an advised 5/6. It was equally a very good weekend for anyone following many of the football advisory services recommended by us here at the Secret Betting Club. My own profit from the beautiful game last week numbered just shy of four figures so smiles all round at the Allen household and no doubt the same for a number of our members too.

A big chunk of that was down to one chap who runs a non-league football betting service, which has been a long-time recommended operation from us here at the Secret Betting Club. He gives out a number of bets advised on teams that I had never heard of before, down at places like the Unibond or British Gas League. It seems at this level the bookies price up a lot of the matches based upon recent form and/or league table placings. That means all too often the bookies are not aware of new signings, injuries or suspensions that always crop up at this level. Non-league teams have a huge turnover in playing staff especially and if you don’t keep your finger on the pulse you will miss out. We have another non-league expert listed in this column as well in Skeeve and its services like his and others that exploit this nice little earning loophole. I’m a convert and I place more money on non-league footy each weekend then I do on the whole of the Premier and football league combined!

For every goldmine tipster service though, you equally get just as many ‘dodgy’ products and promotions doing the rounds designed only to part you and your cash. One we continue to hear from is the ubiquitous Auto Lays service from a certain Mr. Jason Henderson who continues to promote his website heavily. His is a loss recovery stop-at-a-winner system that has been doomed to failure since it began and indeed has gone bust a number of times lately. Still we continue to receive his promotions on how good it is, which is in direct contrast to everyone else’s opinion. There is a full Auto-Lays review up at Money Maker Review if you’re interested in more.

Until next Friday…

Terry Allen

 

2. The Next Week In Betting

No $20 million Cricket games to entertain us this week but still plenty to get our teeth stuck into from a betting front. Already the media have been building up the big game between Arsenal and Man Utd on Saturday which has a lunchtime kickoff at 12.45. Arsene Wenger has been living up to his Arsene Whinger nickname this week, bemoaning the physical presence of the Stoke team last Saturday. Stoke to be fair have been playing in such a manner for a while now so surely their no holds barred approach should have come as no surprise to the Gunners boss. For all their silky skills, the Arsenal simply done like it up ‘em and you can be sure Fergie will have his team wound up to get in their face. Howard Webb is the man in charge and you can get 11/5 with Paddy Power (3.85 on Betfair) on their being a red card.
Either way the pressure is on and with his side being out of form this is a game Arsenal simply cannot afford to lose to keep pace with the Sky big 4. Set-pieces as always will be vital in a tight game like this and we have seen a number of centre-halves for either team chipping in a few goals lately. First goalscorer odds (which can be backed each-way) on Silvestre at 50/1 with Bet365 (if he plays injury permitting), Ferdinand at 40/1 with Bet365 and Toure at 40/1 also with Bet365 might be a way to go.

For Boxing fans there is also the mouth watering fight between Joe Calzaghe and Roy Jones Jr at Madison Square Gardens in New York. It is Joe’s last fight (well supposedly, we all know boxers are very liable to have their heads turned on this) and he is 4/11 odds on best price with Bet365 and Ladbrokes.

 

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Featuring up to date and full reviews of some of the most talked about services (good and bad) such as Auto Lays, Win On Sports, Steve Lewis Hamilton & Isiris Racing amongst many others.

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3. Tipping Legends Column

The Tipping Legends are 2 horse racing specialists who both have an in-depth knowledge of the sport and will be supplying a full rundown of some of the weekend's feature races and betting angles. These guys know their stuff when it comes to racing, ignore at your peril.

This weeks topic which we will expand on over the weekend on our website, is regarding which trainers are best to follow with fresh horses (i.e. those coming off a break)
 
It can be a very profitable angle to look at horse & trainers who are best after a break as some horses are "stuffy" & need a couple of runs to get fit. On the flipside, other horses (usually lighter framed horses or keen types) are better with spaces between their races.
 
Due to space its impossible to list all the horses this can be applied for, but we can look at the sort of trainers that excel at producing horses that are ready to run well after a break
 
When analysing results I always discount those over 50/1 as a fluke result can mess figures up & I also discount horse less than 2/1 (a general rule of mine if it can be done)
 
To start off with I looked at Nov & Dec for the last 4 years & only looked at trainers who have had 15 such runners or more (I don't include debutants). My actual definition of a fresh horse is one returning after at least 100 days off the track.
 
It is no surprise to see that Nicholls does well with a 15.3% strike rate & 48.9% being placed for a ROI of 7.27%. However he is not in the top 5 of such trainers and top of the lot is Jim Best with a 26% SR & 2/3rd placing for a profit of 24.75 ( ROI 165%).
This was from only the minimum runners (15) so another more high profile one to catch the eye is Alan King who has a SR of 15.6% & a place rate of 49%. Similar to Nicholls but not as heavily bet on so a nice 25 pts profit (18.3% ROI)
 
Of the really big trainers Nicky Henderson does the best with almost 20% winning for an ROI of 13%. 2 smaller yards to note are Carl Llewellyn who has a SR of 24% & an ROI of over 99% & Jim Old's stable who has the biggest profit of all with 51pts from a strike rate of 15.5% The one surprisingly poor performer was David Pipe who has had 80 such runners but has had only 4 winners
 
So as you can see there are many angles to start with & you can always delve deeper into a trainers secrets to see where best to follow them.
 
This is where you can go racing in the coming week:
Saturday -  Doncaster ( flat), Kelso, Wincanton, Sandown, Wolverhampton (AW- evening) Naas.
Sunday  -  Kempton ( AW) , Hereford, Market Rasen, Limerick, Navan
Monday  -  Carlisle, Southwell ( AW) , Wolverhampton ( AW), Limerick
Tuesday  -  Exeter, Lingfield, Sedgefield,
Wednesday - Bangor-on- Dee, Kempton, Southwell (AW), Wolverhampton (AW), Fairyhouse
Thursday - Taunton, Ludlow, Lingfield (AW), Great Leighs (AW), Clonmel
Friday -  Cheltenham, Kempton, Newcastle, Southwell, Dundalk

The Tipping Legends will also be exploring a lot more of these issues in-depth at their own website, starting this Monday. Be sure to check back then for more.

Visit The Tipping Legends Website
Read our review of the Tipping Legends service 

 

4. Ask The Legends Your Question
Do you have a burning question about horse racing or just betting in general you want to put to the experts? Well here is your chance as the Tipping Legends addresses your questions each week. To put your own question to them send it in an email to info@secretbettingclub.com

This weeks question is…

I often hear about a horse being a certain number of lbs 'out of the handicap'. What does this mean?

In basic terms, each horse is allocated a handicap rating based on its form to date.
 
Moat handicaps have a limit to the type of horse that can run, so for example, a 0-130 handicap is limited to horses rated 130 or less. Top weight in chases are usually give 12 stone so a horse rated 130 will get the top weight of 12 stone and a horse rated 125 will carry 11 stone 9lb's & so on.
 
As you can see from the race - it is a 0-130 so there is an upper limit but no lower limit. A horse rated 100 can enter this race & should carry 30 lb's lower than the top weight, however that would mean it carrying 9 stone 12lb. Most lower weights are set at 10 stone so that horse would carry an extra 2 lb's. This would be described as being out of the handicap by 2 lb's.
 
A real life example can be seen in the big hurdle race at Wincanton on Saturday. Katchit receives the top weight of 11 stone 10 - he is rated 166.  Blythe Knight is rated 152 so carries 14 lb's less - 10 stone 10. However, they have set the minimum weight as 10 stone 4 so any horse rated below 146 will be out of the handicap. Kings Quay is scheduled to run but is rated 136 & should carry 9 stone 8. He is therefore 10lb's out of the handicap & this is usually a big disadvantage. 

 

5. The Winabobatoo Weekender
Winabobatoo are English Premier League, Football League and Scottish Premier betting experts. Using their own excellent football system to pretty much 'Win a bob or two' for their members, they are sharing one of their 'star' bets every week with us. Star bets are their best rated, best value bets and worth following in with a few bob of your own.

Last week I pointed you in the direction of Sheff Utd to beat Plymouth at 5/6 (1.83) and they duly obliged.

My website members were given 5 winners from 6 selections.

This week sees the first round of the FA Cup. Cup matches are extremely unpredictable and are best avoided. Lesser teams often raise their game and predictions become very difficult. The short-priced games that look like certainties hold no value as there will be enough upsets to spoil the party!

The key to profitable betting is to bet when the odds are longer than the risk involved. Take Wigan to beat Stoke this weekend in the Premiership.

Have a bet on Wigan to beat Stoke at 5/6 (1.83) available with Totesport and a number of other bookmakers as well.

Mike Lindley (www.winabobatoo.co.uk)

Interested in Winabobatoo? Well in an exclusive offer, you can save £25 on the cost of Winabobatoo membership if you are a Secret Betting Club subscriber.

Visit The Winabobatoo Website
Read our review of the Winabobatoo service 


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6. Skeeve's Non-League

Skeeve is our resident Non-League betting expert who will be sharing with you his best advice for this weekend's domestic non-league card. What Skeeve doesn't know about all things semi-pro aint worth knowing and the bookies hate it as lets face it they know next-to nothing about football at this level.

Hi everybody,

Unfortunately, last weekend's free pick kicked five units out of our pockets, but the way it happened was absolutely heartbreaking – and that's been the story of my 08/09 season so far. Hayes weren't a better team (you can actually see the match highlights here: http://fcvideo.co.uk/hyu.htm).

In fact the 1st half was all Havant and they actually took the lead with ten minutes to go, but Hayes first equalised (Hendry's goal was a beauty) and then obviously scored a winner in the 93rd minute.

You may well ask how 5 units lost is still a ‘long-term’ winning bet? Well, it's obvious that we were on the right side here – remember, odds on an away win were 3.20 (3.50 the day before, when I was sending the pick to my subscribers) and we even improvised a fine 'double chance' bet that would bring us +2 units profit in case of a draw (and +4.6 units in case of an away win, a bit more the day before).

This time we were just very unlucky (how often does a 93rd minute goal go against you), but we were on the right side nevertheless. A lot of injury-time goals screwed up my bets in the last couple of months and it's always heartbreaking, but that's betting – and from time to time an injury-time goal will put a smile on our face as well.

8/11/2008

BLUE SQUARE SOUTH

THURROCK – Basingstoke 1  (1.80 @Sky Bet) 4 units

Thurrock once again proved that they aren't a Cup team (lost 1:4 at BS Premier high-flyers Kettering in the Setanta Shield this Tuesday), but they're doing fine in BS South lately, they have two wins (at Braintree and Fisher) and a draw with Bognor in the last three. McKenzie scored three goals in the last two matches, new signings Hart and Howard are linking up well in midfield and their defence (with Swaine and Pain in the centre) is actually pretty good – of course it's not good enough for full-strength BS Premier leaders, but it's more than good enough for poor Basingstoke who will, to make things even worse for them (and better for us), be without a couple key players – goalkeeper Kitteridge, defender Bristow (both suspended), winger Tucknott (injured) and most probably midfielder Williamson. Basingstoke did take four points out of their last two matches (1:4 FA Cup defeat to Bury happened in between), but they only managed to beat free-falling Bromley and share points with struggling Newport in a goalless draw – Newport had two players sent off (the first sending off happened before half-time), but they were a better team nevertheless (I watched the match highlights and counted – Basingstoke had two shots on goal – one was a header than went over the bar and the second was a harmless long-range effort). Before these two matches, Basingstoke had four defeats in a row (including defeats to Bishop's Stortford and Fisher) and that 2:0 win at Bromley is in fact their only league win this season. Thurrock are much bigger favorites here than the odds suggest, no doubt about that.

(1.80 also at Stan James, Blue Square, Coral &, Sportingbet...) 


Visit Skeeve's Website

Read our review of Skeeve's service 

 

7. Make £26 In This Weeks Free Bookmaker Offer

If you are looking to make some extra cash each week you could do a lot worse than take advantage of some of the sign-up bonus offers from highlighted bookies and casinos that can help make you anything from an extra fiver to £1,000.

Before we get onto this weeks offer, at little education…

Some of these offers require you to place a bet to qualify, but that doesn’t mean you needs to waste this qualifying bet. The best way to enter these deals for free is to place the bet with the bookmaker in question then immediately hedge the bet by laying it off for the same amount at
Betfair. The net results should be a tiny loss because of Betfair commission and the difference in odds. These means you can enter some fabulous deals for as little as 50p, instead of the required £5-£20.

If you’re wagering to get a free bet and don’t know how to make the most of your new free bet when you get it, this simplest answer is to now to place the full free bet with the bookmaker, then lay half the amount of the free bet at
Betfair. You’ll need to do some tweaking depending on the odds, but that’s not a bad starter for 10.

Here’s a great bet to get you started:

BOYLE SPORTS

Boyle Sports will give you up to £200 in free bets in total including a massive £50 on your first bet. Here’s how to take advantage of it.

Sign up to Boyle Sports here

Back Manchester United against Arsenal today at 2.38 for £50.
Lay Manchester United on Betfair for £50.64

Your net result will be -£1.89 no matter what happens. BUT you have a £50 free bet due.

Now you have to wait until the next day for the bet to be credited.

Check your account for the free bet and then do the following

Back Manchester United against Arsenal at 2.38 for £50.
Lay Manchester United on Betfair for £29.36
Your net result will be ++£27.89 no matter what happens.

£26 total profit without risking a penny!

Remember to double check the terms and conditions and be aware that odds might change.

 

For more such offers sign-up to our regular Friday Freebie email.


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