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Weekend Wager Column - 09/01/2009 ************************************ I work as part of the team at the Secret Betting Club where we uncover exactly which experts, systems and tipsters you should follow to make money betting. As well as proofing dozens of tipsters we also include monthly articles on professional gambling tips and betting strategies. Every article and review we put together is also listed at our new member's website Money Maker Review. The Weekend Wager is designed to be your free guide to the forthcoming weekend's betting opportunities and features free betting advice and articles from a number of hand-picked betting experts. Keep a look out for The Weekend Wager hitting your inbox's every Friday afternoon. CONTENTS 1. Terry Says ******************************************************************************** 1. Terry Says Back to the grindstone this week for many it seems as 2009 gets into full swing and everyone is back at work now, albeit somewhat reluctantly especially considering the sub-zero temperatures over in this side of the world. At times like this I am especially glad I don’t have to sit on a horse in thin silk clothes freezing my bits off and am safely cooped up in a warm room watching numbers flash on a screen! Ask me again about that in summer though and I might have a different response. Speaking of work though and my point last week about explaining your ‘job’ when you bet for a living, made me recall an encounter not so long ago when I inadvertently told a relative stranger my ‘job’ when we were introduced my a mutual friend. Now normally when I say that I bet to earn an income I get blank looks but this guy it seems was a fully paid up gambler himself, but alas a losing one. His pitfall it seems was setting out with pre-conceived ideas on what he needed to bet on to make a profit and was fully focused on the fact he could only make profits by laying horses at Betfair. Now normally the spiel that many laying services peddle is that it’s easier to pick a loser than a winner, which is true up to a point, but it neglects the fact that it can hurt a lot when those lays win the race. This guy in question had bought into this mindset that only laying would work, after never being able to make money betting in the more traditional ways for many years. After all he said, the bookmakers are effectively layers themselves. Bookmakers do make a profit that is true but they are highly skilled (normally, the shameful Boylesports apart!) as laying is a very tough nut to crack. Via our Secret Betting Club service we actively are monitoring the performance of 40 different advisory services that we have reviewed and only 4 out of that 40 actually supply laying advice. The reason for such a small number? Well we have tested many different laying services in our time but one after another falls by the wayside as it’s very hard to do profitably and consistently. It also takes balls of steel sometimes to be a layer, as when the ‘winners’ come home it hurts a lot (especially if you lay at big prices too!). I do lay as part of my own betting, it’s just part of my portfolio of betting activities. I don’t care whether it’s laying, backing, dutching or whatever as long as there’s an edge to be had. I actually have my own laying system which is having a relatively quiet period lately but I know it works long-term. I also understand the ‘mentality’ needed to be a successful layer and to roll with the occasional punches. My advice to the chap who was set in his ways about laying being the only and best way was to try to not to think of himself as a 'layer' or a 'backer' even, but as a bettor looking for an edge and to remember laying is just backing in another form. Laying at 5.0 is effectively backing at 1/4. Now I find the most important thing in gambling is price and value, as sure it's easier to pick a loser in a horse race, but to make it pay you have to lay at value prices i.e laying a horse at 5/1 when it should be 7/1. Every now and then you will take a hit as the 7/1 chance wins but overall your laying at lower than its true value. That my friends is the kind of edge that makes you a wedge! Despite all the facts about how hard laying is, there are still a lot of ‘wonder’ products, e-books and systems out there that claim to have a laying profits magic wand. Sadly the only magic their advice brings is a one way ticket to emptying your betting bank. As a wise man once said if it looks too good to be true, it usually is! Those aforementioned four laying services we are actively monitoring are worth checking out though if that form of betting interests you, and we currently have another 3-4 laying services that are pending a full review of interest. We also recently reviewed the much hyped Winners To Losers system and came out with some very interesting conclusions that you must read if you are following or thinking of doing so. You can read the full article via this Money Maker Review link or by being a member of the Secret Betting Club. Until next Friday… Terry Allen
2. The Next Week In Betting First a little rant as it seems to get ahead in sport these days, more and more pro’s are being media trained to spout off what I term ‘management speak’ and nowhere is this worse these days than in English Cricket. Resignation and sacking shenanigans aside this week at least we wont have to listen to Kevin Pietersen’s regular somewhat irate ‘interview’s where he talks about the ‘positives that can always be taken (despite getting thrashed 5-0) or that ‘the boys tried hard’ (despite only taking 4 wickets for 380 on a 5th day Indian pitch) and such-like. It’s a bug-bear of mine and let’s hope new Captain Straussy can be a bit more eloquent, which he should given his public school education, normally a pre-requisite to be an English captain. Let’s not forget we have replaced one South African born captain for another here either! Staying on the Cricket theme and we have the 20-20 games between South African and Australia down under to whet our appetite with the test series all over. I cant help wondering how different the final result would have been in the 3rd test if captain marvel Graeme Smith hadn’t broken his hand in the first innings (How England must wish we had a leader like him!). 20/20 Cricket is great to watch and a format I normally prefer to trade on Betfair, as the price can swing dramatically and canny punters can gain a real edge. Football wise we have the clash between Man Utd and Chelsea to ‘look’ forward to this weekend, and I have to admit to not being a fan of such games between the Big 4. I always find the sides involved seemingly set their stall out primarily not to lose first and foremost and as a viewing spectacle they offer more famine than feast. In the build up to this game, neither team are playing well or scoring freely and although I wont be getting involved, under 2.5 goals is best priced 7/10 with Blue Square and 0-0 outright is 17/2 with VCbet if you must have a punt. I am no fan of Boylesports and their restrictions but they have an offer on this weekend that they will refund all losing single bets on this game if a sans-Ferrari Cristiano Ronaldo scores the first or last goal. Worth considering if you are having a tinkle. One game I do like the look of for a bet is Liverpool against Stoke as I don’t think we will see a repeat of the 0-0 at Anfield earlier this season. Liverpool are flying at the moment and are without doubt a team set-up to play better away from home. While I doubt they will win the league, Liverpool to win -1.25 Asian Handicap at 13/16 with Canbet appeals to me for this game. This weekend we also have more Tennis as the new season continues apace with Andy Murray in red-hot form just in time for the Australian Open, as well as the BDO World Darts, NFL action as the Superbowl draws ever nearer and the always ridiculous Celebrity Big Brother. Whatever you bet on, good luck! ******************************************************************************** Featuring up to date and full reviews of some of the most talked about tipping services (good and bad) 3. Tipping Legends Column Good Luck, but above all enjoy your racing. Visit The Tipping Legends Website
4. The Winabobatoo Weekender The fixture list has provided us with a very strange list of games this weekend. I’m not sure what Alex Ferguson will have made of it, but he probably won’t care as long as his team beat Chelsea! The point is that there are no fewer than 15 home teams priced shorter than 4/5 (1.80). Those 15 games will no doubt find quite a high percentage of winners, but making significant profits from such short odds is hard to do. Surprises crop up often enough to scupper the best “bankers” and make profits in this area marginal. Turning our attention to potential away wins sees odd statistics too. It usually pays to back away teams when they are in significantly superior form to the home team. On Boxing Day my ratings showed there were 16 games where the away team clearly had the upper hand, this weekend there are two! One in Liverpool at Stoke and the other is Huddersfield at Northampton. It’s a rare weekend of little action for me and Huddersfield look like the best bet. Huddersfield were available at 9/5 (2.80) with a few bookmakers earlier in the week, but the best price is now 7/4 (2.75) and is only available with Paddy Power and SkyBet. My members have obviously snapped up the best odds, but a profitable price still remains. Have a bet on Huddersfield to win at Northampton at 7/4 (2.75) available with Hills Good luck with your betting. Mike Lindley (www.winabobatoo.co.uk ) Visit The Winabobatoo Website
Hi everybody, I have to admit that I'm always planning on writing a proper column, not just a couple of words, but Friday is always a very busy day for me and I'm afraid nothing changed. However, last week's free pick was another winning bet as Stevenage trashed Lewes 3:0 and that of course covered the (-1.25) asian handicap. So, let's oppose Lewes one more time – the value is definitely there, but I'll be as careful as ever and improvise another draw-no-bet (we'll lose only 0.4 unit in case of a draw). 10/1/2009 FA TROPHY AD-HOC DRAW-NO-BET: Lewes – HAVANT 2 (3.00 @Ladbrokes) 3 units & X (3.60 @Coral) 1 unit Lewes brought in two Barnet's teenage forwards on loan, Charles and St Aimee (who haven't really made an impact at Grays and Stevenage, where he was also on loan this season), but both their midfield and defence could use a boost too and they once again have major selection problems – another new forward Klein-Davies is suspended (sent off in the first match for Lewes, last Saturday at Stevenage); Gargan, Elliott and Rowland are all injured; Standing, Fenelon and Cullip are all very doubtful; Wheeler is unavailable and Hinshelwood, Thomas and Tabiri all returned to their parent clubs. Havant also have some selection problems (Poate is suspended, Matthews returned to Salisbury, Conroy got released due to work commitments and Collins, captain and penalty taker, is set to undergo a heart operation), but they have a much bigger and individually better squad than Lewes (Booth, Simpemba and Holloway were all at Lewes last season btw) and I can't see Lewes winning this one. Havant are traditionally great in Cup competitions, they've been better away than at home this season and Lewes are not a team they should be afraid of. Lewes need a miracle to escape relegation from BS Premier, they have four defeats in a row (0:2 to Woking, 0:1 at Eastbourne, 0:2 to Eastbourne, 0:3 at Stevenage), three home defeats in a row, eight defeats and one win (only against Grays though, the worst away team in England) in the last nine home matches. Havant are on a nice unbeaten run (three wins and two draws in the last five) and they've already managed to beat much better teams than Lewes away from home this season (2:1 at Chelmsford, 3:2 at Eastleigh in the Setanta Shield, 3:0 at Crawley in the FA Cup...). And yes, they've also managed to beat Lewes in the last pre-season friendly – it was 1:0 for Havant at Lewes and you should know that Havant had a bit weaker team then and Lewes had a much better team than now. We lose only 0.4 unit in case of a draw. (3.05 for an away win currently at Betfair btw, 2.88 at Skybet, 2.80 at Bwin and Sportingbet... 3.85 for a draw currently at Betfair btw, 3.50 at Bet365, Bwin, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, Skybet, Sportingbet, StanJames, Victor Chandler, William Hill...)
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