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Weekend Wager Column - 13/02/2009 ************************************ I work as part of the team at the Secret Betting Club where we uncover exactly which experts, systems and tipsters you should follow to make money betting. As well as proofing dozens of tipsters we also include monthly articles on professional gambling tips and betting strategies. Every article and review we put together is also listed at our new member's website Money Maker Review. The Weekend Wager is designed to be your free guide to the forthcoming weekend's betting opportunities and features free betting advice and articles from a number of hand-picked betting experts. Keep a look out for The Weekend Wager hitting your inbox's every Friday afternoon. CONTENTS 1. Terry Says ******************************************************************************** 1. Terry Says It’s a tough life being a football manager as we saw this week with Big Phil Scolari and Tony Adams the latest to get the heave-ho. Big Phil will no doubt console himself with his monster payoff but the fact remains that the beautiful game is more than ever a results business these days. Oh how I hark back for the days when the biggest issue was not selling a football brand or a billion pound TV deal (check out this list of the worst modern day football things) but the terrible haircuts the likes of Chris Waddle and Jason Lee would sport in the ‘name of fashion’ (top 11 list of worst barnets here!). Follicular fashion aside, my point about managers being sacked after just a few months in the job is that surely the best teams are those that have had a steady man in charge for a while. Look at the top teams these days and normally they are the ones who have stuck with their manager through thick and thin. Ferguson, Wenger, Moyes, Southgate and so on being just a few examples of this. Ok well maybe not Southgate, but you get my drift… I always see parallels with this short-term results madness that is so common in so many businesses these days and that of a winning gambler. I tell you if I packed in betting and following my key tipsters every time they had a losing spell I wouldn’t be sitting here today writing to you as a pro gambler. I know the tipsters I follow are good but as sure as eggs are eggs, they will have a losing patch at some point. Now if in true Abramovich style I sack them after a 1 or 2 month unprofitable run, then I’m selling myself short as very often after a losing run comes a winning run. How many times do you see that in Football? A team has a rough trot, loses a few games, but then that bottoms out and all of a sudden the confidence is back, luck is on their side and bobs your uncle, the tide has turned. Suddenly the manager who was one game from his p45 is the best thing since sliced bread. Betting like football management is a results business, as if you’re a tipster you’re only as good as your results. However it’s my golden rule never to act like a headless chicken and to always judge anyone advising bets on a long-term basis. Making it work (and profitable) is all about patience, knowing your stats, belief in how you are following and what to expect. When you chuck in the laws of probability, statistical chance and lady luck it can make for a rollercoaster ride at times. But like all good rollercoaster’s, eventually they come to a rest, when you can get off the ride, gather your composure and get back on steady ground. Until next Friday… Terry Allen 2. The Next Week In Betting The romance of the FA Cup returns this weekend for the 5th round and I still think its worth looking at a few value outsiders to be outright winners. Already I picked out Everton at 25/1 and Fulham at 66/1 before the 3rd round and they are still in with a good chance. Apart from the big 3 remaining (Chelsea, Man Utd & Arsenal) I want to ignore all the teams from the Premier League in a relegation battle (Blackburn, Hull, Boro) and want to add to my FA Cup bets with a punt on West Ham at 16/1 with William Hill. The happy hammers are playing a lot of good stuff at the moment and with a home tie against a woeful Boro, should easily make the quarter finals. All we need after that is some kind draws for the 3 teams above and we could have a decent trio of bets there. In the actual 5th round games I like the look of Chris Coleman’s Coventry to take something away to Blackburn. Big Sam has one goal this year, to keep his team outfit in the Premiership and Coventry fresh from turning over Wolves in midweek offer value at 5/1 with Paddy Power. I’m taking a piece of the 5/1 but wouldn’t put anyone more cautious off taking the away team with a +0.75 Asian Handicap at evens with Stan James. There are some other big football games away from the FA Cup with two tasty derbies in Glasgow and Milan as Celtic host Rangers and AC and Inter meet in the San Siro. Neither games are for the feint-hearted to either watch or attend and certainly not the type you would take your mother to. Celtic’s form has dropped off lately and Rangers fresh from 2 weeks without a game will be chomping at the bit. These games are notoriously difficult to profit from but I wouldn’t put anyone off the 23/10 from Bet365 on the draw. Inter against AC Milan is live on BBC3 on Sunday night so no doubt a few of you may be interested in a wager. Kaka is out injured for this clash which is a big blow for Carlo Ancelotti’s team who are 8 points behind Inter and need to win to kick-start their title challenge. The game is down as a home tie for Inter but this is deceiving as both sides share the San Siro and AC Milan are a best priced 13/5 with Stan James for this clash which looks tasty to me. As I write this column, the 2nd test between the West Indies and England is just about to start and even though I have been banging on about the hosts being under-rated I didn’t expect them to absolutely murder the tourists as they did last Saturday. As I also mentioned the 8/13 on England to win the series before that game was far too short and they are now 11/4 best priced with Bet365 to do this. I dug up some interesting stats on England’s underperforming batting line-up here and it picks out clearly where the problems currently lie as only 2 of the top 6 batsmen average over 40 in the last 18 months. Change is well overdue in the top 6 and it’s high time some fresh blood was brought in, and at least Owais Shah is getting a game. More rugger action as the 6 nations continues and I only just missed out on my 11/4 bet on Wales to overcome a 14 pt handicap last week. The Dragons host under pressure England at Cardiff Arms Park this Saturday evening and are as short as 1/4 with Sporting Bet to win, which makes sense with Ryan Jones definitely back in although Shane Williams is only rated 50-50 with a sprained ankle. At 1/4, it doesn’t appeal from a value perspective and I am struggling to find much worth taking a punt on this weekend on the Rugby with France and Ireland also very short favourites. Best I feel to sit back, put the feet up and watch for once, without any bets riding on it. Good luck with whatever you’re having a punt on this weekend. ******************************************************************************** 3. Tipping Legends Column Visit The Tipping Legends Website
4. The Winabobatoo Weekender I hope you’re having a profitable and successful 2008-09 betting campaign with your football bets. There have certainly been a few strange results this season, probably none more so than Hull managing to hold Chelsea last weekend, which ultimately led to Mr Scolari being dismissed. In the main, I find that you have to move away from the Big Four to make serious profits, and try to see the things that the bookmakers can’t see. This is the beauty of my unique team ratings. They don’t agree with the league tables, and this is where the bookmakers and punters get most of their information from. We can then spot when the bookies have made mistakes and bet when the odds are in our favour, rather than against us, securing long-term profits. An example of this was on Tuesday night when we had a bet on Tranmere to win at Colchester at 13/5 (3.60). The bookies had Colchester strong favourites at 11/10 (2.10) but my match and form ratings said Tranmere were best, and we took advantage of their slip up. Since the start of last season, the recommended bets, as given to my customers at Winabobatoo, have made 132 points profit to one point level stakes bets, which is over 14% profit on turnover, so £10 placed on each has made £1,320, whilst £100 on each had made £13,200. All selections are proofed to the sporting press and Secret Betting Club prior to matches taking place. We don’t win every week, we can’t guarantee to win every month (although there has only been one losing month since September 2007) but by betting with the odds in our favour, we can make serious profits in the long-term. This week’s recommendation is to take Notts Co to beat Barnet at 5/6 (1.83). Notts County have been reasonably reliable, relative to their ability this season. Barnet have been struggling and it looks as though County will have too many guns for them. Just a quick word about my complete betting service at Winabobatoo: Membership closes at the end of the month and no new members will be taken for this season. Places are limited and priority places for next season will go to current members. If you’re thinking of joining us, now is the time to do so. Have a bet on Notts Co to beat Barnet at 5/6 (1.83) with BetFred and Paddy Power Good luck with your betting. Mike Lindley (www.winabobatoo.co.uk )
Visit The Winabobatoo Website ********************************************************************************
Hi everybody,
Another winning bet last weekend, when you're on a good run, things like that happen. Basingstoke were 2-0 down in the 84th minute, pulled one back in the 85th, equalised two minutes later and scored a lucky winner in injury time. The stats don't lie, these 13 free picks so far have generated a 33.4% RoI:
Back to business:
14/2/2009
BLUE SQUARE SOUTH
DOUBLE CHANCE: Team Bath – BASINGSTOKE X2 (2.30 @Boyle Sports) 3 units
Team Bath haven't been the same team since Abbott left them back in November (the guy scored five goals in the first three matches, eight in the first nine). They had an amazing start in BSS (nine wins and two draws in the first thirteen league matches), but they've only managed to win three times in the next eleven matches, only once in the last four. If we take a look at their home results, well, you don't have to be a genius to notice a certain pattern. Team Bath have lost six out of last seven home matches – the only team that they've managed to beat were poor Fisher. 0:2 to Maidenhead, 0:3 to Bromley, 1:3 to Eastleigh, 1:2 to Wimbledon, 4:1 vs Fisher, 0:2 to Hampton, 0:2 to Worcester. Five handicap defeats, fifteen goals conceded. Wait, it gets worse – they'll be without their 'influential' defender El Abd who is suspended, goalkeeper Chitty who is injured and captain Warren is still a major doubt. By the way both El Abd and Warren missed only two league matches so far; El Abd missed two matches back in September and Warren missed one match in November and Team Bath's last league match played two and a half weeks ago (both 0:2 home defeats).
Basingstoke are determined to stay in the league and their recent results have been encouraging – that 3:2 win at Bognor last Saturday was truly amazing, they were 0:2 down in the 84th minute! Only one defeat in the last five and two defeats in the last eleven. Basingstoke did lose some away matches this season that they should've won, after all they are in the relegation zone, but they're improving – they have two wins, two defeats and a draw in the last five away matches (3:0 at Weston, 0:0 at Hampton, 0:1 at Eastleigh, 0:3 at very much improved Newport, 3:2 at Bognor), a good attitude, a motivated bench and if Dolan and Williamson both return to the starting line-up for this match, these odds will look huge – but don't get me wrong, they look great even if both of them remain sidelined. A draw is a very possible outcome here and Team Bath are still without a home draw this season, maybe it's time.
(2.25 at Paddy Power, 2.20 at Bwin and Blue Square, 2.19 at Gamebookers...) Read our review of Skeeve's service
6. £26 risk free in 5 minutes! Fancy making over £26 in 5 minutes (silly question really), if fact it could be £52+ in 10 minutes with these two offers are stake returned and partner friendly offers This will be the fastest £27 you ever make....... Back Birmingham at Eurobet with £100 at 1.80 LAY Birmingham at Betfair with £102.27 at 1.81 (you will need just £82.84 in Betfair to cover the bet) Just a £2.84 loss but a free £20 bet which we can cash out immediately for risk free profit and as it is stake returned we can use the same bet again so..... Back Birmingham at Eurobet with the free £20 at 1.80 LAY Birmingham at Betfair with £20.45 at 1.81 (you will need just £16.57 in Betfair to cover the bet) A £19.16 profit, so that is £16.32 instant risk free profit, fantastic! Here is the link to get signed up with (and remember this is partner friendly so that is double instant profit)..... Back Birmingham at Coral with £10 at 1.80 LAY Birmingham at Betfair with £10.23 at 1.81 Just an 28p loss but a free £10 bet which we can cash out immediately for risk free profit and as it is stake returned we can use the same bet again so..... Back Birmingham at Coral with the free £10 at 1.80 LAY Birmingham at Betfair with £10.23 at 1.81 A £9.72 profit whatever the outcome, so that is £9.44 instant risk free profit, fantastic! Here is the link to get signed up with (and remember this is partner friendly so that is double instant profit).....
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