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THE TIPSTERS
 

Weekend Wager Column - 20/02/2009

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THE WEEKEND WAGER
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Welcome to this the latest 'Weekend Wager' free betting column produced by Terry Allen from the Secret Betting Club and Money Maker Review service.

I work as part of the team at the Secret Betting Club where we uncover exactly which experts, systems and tipsters you should follow to make money betting. As well as proofing dozens of tipsters we also include monthly articles on professional gambling tips and betting strategies. Every article and review we put together is also listed at our new member's website Money Maker Review.

CONTENTS

1. Terry Says
2. The Next Week In Betting
3. Tipping Legends Column
4. The Winabobatoo Weekender
5. Skeeve's Non-League
6. Grab these two £25 free bets before its too late!

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1. Terry Says

My inbox this week has been cluttered up with email after email promoting just some of the latest wonder system to fall from the heavens. Going from some of the sales spiel that’s being banded around, you would think that Gordon Brown should buy some of them, follow them for a few weeks and hey presto – the credit crunch will be over!

Sadly though the truth about so many of these wonder systems is that they have all the hallmarks of the typical here today – gone tomorrow product, the likes of which are all over the Internet like a rash these days. My advice for anyone interested in something ‘too good to be true’ is to approach the vendor and ask for genuine proof of their claims (and by this I mean 3rd party proof from a trusted source). If they can’t or won’t supply this, then as a betting man, I would offer you 100/1+ that the majority of them won’t make anywhere near what they claim.

What really sticks in the throat though are the irresponsible promotions about these products from affiliate marketers, who are the guys who make a cut from selling them on. They will do whatever it takes to flog you the products that they make the most from, regardless of whether they believe in them or not. It’s a crazy approach when you think about and in no other walk of like would they get away with it….except selling betting systems and tips!

Just imagine if you went into Tesco’s and they started recommending these dodgy betting products. People would soon stop shopping there and before long they would go bust, but it seems these affiliate guys stay in business somehow. Unfortunately that must mean some people continue to fall for their wares.

It can be hard to know what to believe at times and you can see why so many people get caught out when judging the lengths that some system sellers will go to. It’s becoming more common nowadays for some to even manipulate a bookmaker or Betfair profit and loss page to ‘show’ they make a profit. One such dodgy system vendor was caught out this week for doing just this in a very amateurish method, which simply beggared belief. There was also an instance not so long ago where another Betfair screenshot was so badly doctored that when listing results from Ascot, it was miss-spelt as Ascott!

My advice is to be sure to keep your wits about you when it comes to these betting promotions, and if ever in doubt consider a Secret Betting Club membership, where we check everything out for you.

Until next Friday…

Terry Allen

2. The Next Week In Betting

No Rugby this weekend so it’s mainly football that dominates the landscape this week. The stand-out game in the Premier League sees Villa hosting Chelsea who play their first match under Guus Hiddink. Lots of new managers like to keep things tight and build from the back and the under 2.5 goals for this game is 4/6 with the Tote, which might be worth an interest.

Another game that caught my eye from a betting angle this week is Fulham at home to West Brom, where we have two teams with contrasting records. Now this isn’t a game that will be first on the Match of The Day highlights, but Fulham are very strong at home winning 7 out of 11 at home, compared to the Baggies who have won only once on the road and lost nine times. Roy Hodgson, the Fulham boss is known as Maggie Thatcher to his squad and I expect his team to despatch the visitors in a style the Iron Lady herself would be proud of. In my opinion, there is excellent value on Fulham at 5/6 with VCbet.

A crazy week for Cricket just gone, with Sir Allen Stanford likely only to be good for 20/20 for £20 next year, never mind the 20 million. He isn’t the only Sir who has had a tricky week, our very own Sir Ian Botham almost exploded with rage after the 2nd test debacle last Friday, and of course we have ‘Lord Brocket’ AKA Andrew Strauss who must be wondering what he has signed up for in being England captain.

All the talk of Stanford and the 2nd test abandonment has deflected attention from the shambles on and off the pitch that are England and there was plenty of toil for the lads in the field against the Windies with the 3rd test ending in a draw last night. Hard to know just how much the hosts have improved or England have slumped, although a bit of both I imagine. Freddie is unlikely to play in the next test starting on Thursday for which the English are 6/4 with Boyle Sports to take and that looks mighty short considering their talisman is very doubtful.

One player who is in that I do like is Owais Shah who looks good at 11/2 with Stan James to be top English Batman in the 4th test. His 1st innings knock was excellent and only undone by a crazy run-out and we can ignore the 2nd innings effort as he was under orders to score quick runs. For the West Indies Ramnaresh Sarwan is in rare form and at 3/1 with Ladbrokes appeals as well to be their top scorer.

The Oscar’s take place this weekend and there is lots of betting markets being offered for anyone who wants to take a punt on anything Hollywood. Mickey Rourke is the favourite to take home the best actor mantle for portraying a bloated washed-up has-been in ‘The Wrestler’ (surprisingly not a biopic) at a best priced 4/7 with Extra Bet. This is despite Ashley Young who warrants consideration for best actor if considering some of his ludicrous dives in the Everton-Villa game last week. Plenty of creative markets on offer here, with even a ‘Will Kate Winslet’ cry market being offered by Paddy Power, with her being 4/6 to turn on the waterworks should she win.

Good luck with whatever you’re having a punt on this week.

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3. Tipping Legends Column

The Tipping Legends are 2 horse racing specialists who both have an in-depth knowledge of the sport and will be supplying a full rundown of some of the weekend's feature races and betting angles. These guys know their stuff when it comes to racing, ignore at your peril.
 
Finding the winners at Cheltenham
 
We are coming to one of our busiest times of the year as tipsters, with the Cheltenham Festival only a couple of weeks away. Therefore I though it would be interesting for our readers if I gave you some insight into how we go about making our selections. First of all, we start by looking at each race at the entry stage and drawing a line through the absolute no-hopers. The secret is to reduce the number of runners you look at in any race, so you then have time to examine your selected group in detail.
 
Many punters do not look at the stats for Cheltenham, and are therefore often punting with miss-conceived ideas. At pre - Cheltenham forums up and down the country, these are some of the comments often heard from punters:
 
(1) Favourites always win at Cheltenham
(2) Favourites always win the feature races
(3) The festival is a great place for outsiders winning at huge prices
(4) Back the Irish as they win most of the races
(5) Follow the top trainers
(6) Follow the top jockeys
 
Last have an in depth look at these comments.
 
Last years meeting staged 25 races, but only 2 were won by favourites!
 
In fact, over the last 15 years, only 5 favourites have won the Gold Cup, 5 have won the Champion Hurdle, and only 4 have won the Champion Chase! Remember this includes the hot favourites such as Best Mate (Gold Cup), Istabraq (Champion Hurdle) and Moscow Flyer (Champion Chase)
 
Of course a few outsiders do win at the Festival, but not very many at prices in excess of 20/1, and a really fascinating stat is that over the last 15 years, 84% of all winners were in the top 7 in the betting!!!
 
Armed with this knowledge, any tipster worth his salt is now breaking down the top seven in the ante post market for each race. If you are going to try, I promise you it can takes hours to do properly.
Once I have analysed the top seven, I then start looking for other positive factors, such as previous Cheltenham form, recent form, trainer, jockey & owner.  Looking at weights (in handicaps) and going can only been done literally just before the race.
 
How many races do the Irish win?  The average over the last 15 years is 5, but remember there are more races now with the 4 day meeting so that stat needs to be put into context.

Which races are they strong in? Historically they have done incredibly well in the Bumper (usually via Willie Mullins). They also have a good record in the 2 mile novice hurdle and the Champion Hurdle (Istabraq, Hardy Eustace, Sublimity. Brave Inca)
 
Another angle of attack is following the top jockeys and trainers through the meeting, which can prove profitable. For example take a view on how many winners you think the following jockeys will ride (collectively). AP McCoy, Ruby Walsh, Richard Johnson, Barry Geraghty & Sam Thomas. Let’s say we assume we reckon they could ride 7 winners between them, and at the end of the second day they have only ridden say 1 winner, then their mounts for the last 2 days will merit close examination!
 
A similar exercise can be carried out using the following trainers. Paul Nicholls, David Pipe, Nicky Henderson, Philip Hobbs, & Willie Mullins
 
Good luck with your racing & remember to be friendly with your children-they choose your nursing home!

Visit The Tipping Legends Website
Read our review of the Tipping Legends service 

 

4. The Winabobatoo Weekender

Winabobatoo are English Premier League, Football League and Scottish Premier betting experts. Using their own excellent football system to often 'Win a bob or two' for their members, they are sharing one of their 'star' bets every week with us. Star bets are their best rated, best value bets and worth following in with a few bob of your own.

The bad weather from earlier in the month seems to have relented and things are looking a bit more spring-like. The football season is heading towards the business end and there are plenty of intriguing games to come between now and the end of the season.

This weekend sees many of the better teams playing away from home, and that is also backed up by the away teams being in better form, so I expect there to be a fair number of away wins.

Current form matters in all matches but it definitely helps identify the likely away winners. I pointed out a selection method to my members earlier this season based on the Winabobatoo Form Ratings, and since its introduction, there have been 26 winners from 63 bets, returning 80.65 points, to one point stakes, making a profit of 17.65 points, for 28% profit on turnover. That’s 41% winners at average odds of over 2/1 (3.00).

This weekend’s tip: We’ll take relegation haunted Crewe to succumb at home to the superior Huddersfield. The bookmakers tend to shorten up the prices of matches I advise, after the members have put their bets on, but this one was advised at 5/4 (2.25) and is still available with Ladbrokes at 13/10 (2.30).

Membership to my full service closes at the end of next week, and priority places for next season will be given to current members. The twice weekly magazines are e-mailed to your Inbox at noon every Monday and Thursday, providing match and form ratings for every English game down to the Conference, along with the Scottish Premier League, plus loads of other useful stats and betting advice in the rest of the publication. All recommended bets are clearly shown on, “The Bets” page of each magazine.

Have a bet on Huddersfield to beat Crewe at 13/10 (2.30) with Ladbrokes

Good luck with your betting.

Mike Lindley (www.winabobatoo.co.uk )


Interested in Winabobatoo? Well in an exclusive offer, you can save £25 on the cost of Winabobatoo membership if you are a Secret Betting Club subscriber.

Visit The Winabobatoo Website
Read our review of the Winabobatoo service 

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5. Skeeve's Non-League

Skeeve is our resident Non-League betting expert who will be sharing with you his best advice for this weekend's domestic non-league card. What Skeeve doesn't know about all things semi-pro aint worth knowing and the bookies hate it as lets face it they know next-to nothing about football at this level.

 

Hi everybody,

 

Another winning bet last weekend, these are pretty amazing stats if you ask me:

 

FREE

PICKS

STAKED

RETURNED

W-V-L

PROFIT

ROI

 

14

61

84.31

10-1-3

+23.31

138.2%

 

The last Saturday was probably my most succesfull betting day ever – I had seven bets for the weekend and do you know how many of those were losing bets? Seven! That's right. I must admit I had a major hangover on Sunday, I'm only human after all, but I got back to business on Monday and the decision to lay low on Tuesday was one of my best decisions ever. A smart man always learns from his mistakes and doesn't take a bet if he's not 100% confident about it – and that's exactly what I did on Tuesday.

 

This is what I wrote to my subscribers a few hours before Tuesday matches: ''... I was seriously thinking about two BS North matches, but decided not to force it. 2.50 on Workington away at Solihull looked great before I found out that Workington will be without their best scorer Wright and that Solihull signed a couple of very good players last week and are welcoming back another couple of key players after their injuries. I'd also probably bet on Southport at home vs Hinckley if the odds were higher, but 1.50 (and that's only at Victor Chandler, 1.44 or less everywhere else) doesn't look good (especially if we know that Southport are missing a couple of standard players, striker

Kilheeney who already scored 15 goals this season is once again a major doubt, standard midfielder Moogan who was definitely missed at King's Lynn is out injured) – Hinckley are welcoming back a couple of key players after their suspensions and although they've been on/off lately, they aren't that bad away from home and they've already managed to share points with Southport this season at home. I still think Southport should win this match, but there's no value in these odds, Hinckley aren't Fisher or Lewes. There's probably a bit of value on (+0.5) Wrexham (double chance) at Burton in the BS Premier (1.84 at Pinnacle), but I don't feel confident enough about that bet (Burton are having an amazing season and Wrexham are conceding too many goals), so I'll pass...''.

As it turned out, Workington lost 0:2, Wrexham lost 1:2 and the Southport – Hinckley match was a goalless draw. When I saw the results I felt like a winner even though I haven't placed a single bet.

 

By the way I've closed the waiting list for the season (it ends in May), but if you're an Secret Betting Club member, I'll let you get on the list, but only until February 24th and only if you mention Secret Betting Club in your e-mail.

 

Onto this weeks advice…

 

21/2/2009

 

BLUE SQUARE SOUTH

 

HAYES – St Albans 1  (1.75 @ Paddy Power) 5 units

 

Hayes only have two wins in the last thirteen matches, but eight of those were away matches (and Hayes aren't very good away from home) and their home matches were mostly against play-off candidates (1:1 vs Team Bath, 0:1 to Eastleigh, 2:0 vs Maidenhead, 2:2 vs Bath City, 2:1 vs Dorchester). They have fourteen matches left to play and I can't see them losing more than a couple (Welling away and Hampton at home will be the two most difficult matches by far) – they've finally signed a left winger (highly rated Binns from Maidenhead) which means that one of the league's best strikers Scott can finally go back to his striking role, not to mention that their most creative midfielder Hendry returns after his suspension and that another very good striker Palmer is finally fit (Knight has been released and Fitzgerald is injured again, but with Scott and Palmer upfront, Hendry behind them and Coleman on the bench, they still have one of the best attacks in the BSS). St Albans aren't very good away from home (4-4-6), they haven't won a match since November 8th (and that was against Fisher), they have six defeats and four draws in the last ten, their last two matches were two away draws (both 1:1, but both at struggling opponents, they should've lost at Bishop's Stortford last Saturday, but the home keeper made a horrible mistake and allowed Hakim to score an equaliser), they're still without their leading scorer for the past five seasons Clarke and winger Hunt is a major doubt after suffering a concussion last weekend. St Albans had a great October, but that had more to do with the opponents than with the quality of their team – December and January proved that they never were serious play-off candidates and Hayes should have more than enough for them. I was expecting 1.50, so I'm definitely taking 1.75.

 

(1.75 also at Bwin and btw at 10Bet, 1.74 currently at Betfair btw, 1.73 at Bet365, Coral and Sportingbet, 1.70 at Victor Chandler...)

Visit Skeeve's Website

Read our review of Skeeve's service 

 

6. Grab these two £25 free bets before it’s too late!

 

Here is a little known fact and one which only has a few days to run, bookmaker Stan James runs two operations, their European base in Gibraltar and a UK outfit too.

 

What’s more, both companies carry a £25 free bet sign up offer and yes you can have accounts at each, same terms, same odds....blah...blah....

 

Unfortunately the companies are being merged on 24th Feb so this double bubble will be burst forever but that still gives you a few days to pick up BOTH freebies.  All you need to do is register with a different username at each one, so just bob over to ODDSMATCHER and collect the free bets for maximum risk free profit using the standard SJ selections.

 

In fact I just had an email from someone who has completed this yesterday, so be quick you have only got a few more days....

 

Here are the links you need:

 

STAN JAMES

 

STAN JAMES UK

At the time of writing the best bet to use these offers is with Stoke vs Portsmouth.

Backing Portsmouth at 3.00 for £25 and laying them at 3.05 for the same amount will result in a £1.25 loss, but you then have those juicy £25 bets to play around with.

 

And here is the link to everyone’s best betting friend to help you calculate what to do with your free bests.....

 

ODDSMATCHER

 

For more such offers sign-up to our regular Friday Freebie email.

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