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Weekend Wager Column - 20/03/2009 ************************************ I work as part of the team at the Secret Betting Club where we uncover exactly which experts, systems and tipsters you should follow to make money betting. As well as proofing dozens of tipsters we also include monthly articles on professional gambling tips and betting strategies. Every article and review we put together is also listed at our member's website Money Maker Review. ******************************************************************************** 1. Terry Says Back to the humdrum of backing horses at Kempton on a cold Thursday evening this week after the buzz of Cheltenham, although as I always remind myself…a winner at 2/1 pays out the same, whatever the sport, course or event!. I have taken the chance this week with a bit of quiet around the place and with the Chelters craziness behind me, to take stock of my own betting portfolio. These days I follow a good number of tipsters & systems and after a busy period of betting I always withdraw my balance from the bookies and take stock. No doubt my bank manager will have taken notice as he finds it quite a coup to have a successful gambler amongst his clients (well at first he didn’t believe me, but I think he does now!). One thing I have noticed lately is how news of my unique line of work (i.e. pro gambler) travels fast amongst my friends and acquaintances. Last week I had a few texts and calls from friends who wanted a slice of my betting knowledge for Cheltenham as they know of my day job and were keen on having a punt themselves. It’s always hard to explain how I can’t just give one red-hot tip that will definitely win, but it’s by backing a range of horses at value prices that I can make a profit. I normally get ‘hot-tip’ requests off family and friends at Grand National time and I even had a request for a tip in the Melbourne Cup last November by an old pal who is currently down under. Back to the theme of having a betting portfolio though and this is definitely something I can recommend anyone serious at making a wedge gambling does. By portfolio I mean following a combination of services (from as low as just 3-4 services to as many as 15!) which if its set-up well it can work wonders for your bottom line betting profits. We recently released details of a specific Betting Portfolio service that is currently available to all Secret Betting Club members, which helps on all the professional ways of doing just this. If your interested in this fire off an email to Mike who runs this service at portfolio@secretbettingclub.com for more details. Until next Friday… Terry Allen 2. The Next Week In Betting The main event this weekend has to be the Rugby, with Wales & Ireland going tête-à-tête for the 6 nations and with the Welsh boys needing to win by 13 clear points, they are as big as 4/1 with VCbet to win it outright. In terms of each of the 3 games, the bookies odds look spot on unfortunately although Paddy Power stick their neck out for on Wales to win their game at 4/5 which is nearer the mark. There should be no upset in the England - Scotland match, with the away side 6/1 best price with Paddy Power again, who are offering good odds on the Rugby. The world and his wife were caught out last week with Liverpool’s win over at Old Trafford, with most people on Sir Alex’s men to do the business. It raises all kinds of questions about the title race and more pressingly this weekend’s football as Rafa’s men seem to have all the momentum and Chelsea showing that perhaps their Guus is not quite cooked after all. Whether or not you would want to back the scousers at a best 1/2 with Coral to beat Villa at home is another question though as the bare stats tell us Liverpool have drawn 6 out of their 14 home games (not exactly title form) and Villa have won 10 out of their 14 away ties (title form!). Both sides are setup to play away from home and Villa with a +1 Asian handicap at 11/10 with VCbet might be a good option. United are away at Fulham who they trounced 4 - zip only a few weeks back in the cup and are 1/2 with Ladbrokes to do the same again. Chelsea visit a resurgent Spurs and they have another excellent away record this season, taking 32 pts from a possible 42. It may well be worth considering the stand-out 20/21 on them to win again with Blue square. If you want bigger odds then Chelsea are 2/1 with Bluesq to win to nil, and considering they have conceded just one goal in their last 5 league outings, it’s a miserly record that even the scrooge-like Sir Fred Goodwin would be proud of. It seems across the leagues there is a new trend for success in playing away from home (just ask Gordon Ramsay) with more and more teams doing better on their travel. Whatever the reasons for this (perhaps the more widespread use of a 4-5-1 counter attack formation) it has filtered through to the Championship which is one of the most topsy-turvy leagues out there. Anyone from 11th upwards can scoot into the playoffs and with people like Steve Coppell happy his Reading team has more away games than home ones left, it makes a mockery of the old ‘home-banker’ theory. Value is to be had backing away from home it seems and look for those teams setup to soak up pressure and then counter attack. Keep an eye on these 3 this weekend to see if there is legs in this theory: Reading (6/4 with Sportingbet), Sheffield Utd (23/10 with Paddy Power) and Bristol City (11/5 with Bet365) Over in the Cricket and the Indian’s continue to show too much class for New Zealand and Australia are struggling against South Africa in their final test. There is lots of betting to be done though on the England – West Indies ODI series that starts today. England have gone from around 1.91 to 2.24 on Betfair to win the series after their 20/20 whupping on Sunday, which looks decent. I think Paul Collingwood at 7/1 with Ladbrokes is good value to be top series batsmen for England and if Matt Prior plays than the 12/1 by Boyleports on him to do the same is a huge price (I have taken a sneaky saver on that). Fidel Edwards bowled superbly in the test series and his price of 3/1 with Skybet to be top Windies series bowler is my other interest. Good luck with whatever you’re having a punt on this week. ******************************************************************************** 3. Tipping Legends Column Jeremiah Catskill Visit The Tipping Legends Website
4. The Winabobatoo Weekender Last week’s selection came under the system, “Play Away” as there were no “Away Form System” bets. Bournemouth did the business for us. This week there are two “Away Form System” bets and I need to select one of the two for you.
I find this a really tricky process because both games are of equal standing, and very difficult to split. I can’t give you both as that is not fair to my members at Winabobatoo.
We’ll go for Southampton to win at Blackpool. My form ratings say that Southampton have a good edge over Blackpool, so the Southampton odds of 19/10 are too high. 2/1 was available yesterday to my members with Hills, Tote, and Bet 365. The 19/10 is still around with Hills, Corals, and Paddy Power.
Have a bet on Southampton to beat Blackpool at 19/10 (2.90) available with Hills, Corals, and Paddy Power. Good luck with your betting. Mike Lindley (www.winabobatoo.co.uk ) Visit The Winabobatoo Website ********************************************************************************
Hi everybody,
Well this is what I call a gigantic RoI:
You're welcome and well done to those of you who made some profit free of charge, we had nine winning bets in a row and last weekend's free pick was not only another winning bet, but also one of this season's highlights for me as a tipster – we nailed an away win @5.00 (at Boyle Sports, 4.80 at Expekt, 4.75 at Paddy Power), although the 'official odds' (those included in my statistics) were 4.75 as BoyleSports and Expekt aren't on the 'official' list of bookmakers my clients and I are using this season.
Anyway, I'm not sorry for placing an extra unit on a draw (the FT result was 1:2 in our favour) – I like my ad-hoc draw-no-bets. It's a shame we have to improvise them (staking two or three units on a home or an away win and one unit on a draw) and spend a bit more time, but look at the results – my overall RoI (after 646 picks) is 15.2% and in 2009, since I've made the final adjustments (giving up on the Step 3 leagues, focusing on the three Blue Square leagues, having only one or two midweek picks with stakes up to three units – midweek matches often go mad), we broke a lot of point barriers, +50 in February, +400 overall, +100 in 2009.
The membership and the waiting list are both closed for the rest of the season. Everyone who ends the season as a Skeeve Picks subscriber will be offered a spot for next season and if someone drops out, I'll contact the first guy on the waiting list for next season. If you want to be on the waiting list for next season, feel free to send me an e-mail.
cheers, skeeve
21/3/2009
BLUE SQUARE SOUTH
DOUBLE CHANCE: DORCHESTER – Maidenhead 1X (1.57 @Blue Square) 5 units
Since they've lost Pacquette, Newman, Binns and Hinds, Maidenhead have four defeats, three draws and barely a 1:0 win against poor Fisher; three defeats and a draw in the last four (1:2 at Chelmsford, 0:1 to Windsor & Eton in the Berts & Bucks Cup, 1:2 to Basingstoke, 1:1 at Worcester). This time they're also without their standard defender Saroya who was in the starting line-up in every match since Christmas (15 consecutive league matches) due to his suspension and their motivation here is questionable to say the least – they're ineligible to participate in the play-offs even if they do manage to grab that 5th spot (and I bet they won't, not with these players, not without all the key players who made the difference). Dorchester have just brought in an experienced defender Vickers and a couple of new strikers, Tiverton's best scorer Walsh and Erskine from Dagenham; striker Hutchings from Bournemouth also returns to the squad after being unavailable on Tuesday (1:0 win at home vs Havant) and Bowles is back in the team after serving his suspension. They did lose a couple of standard players recently, just like Maidenhead, but at least they've managed to keep Crittenden, bring in a couple of new strikers and of course Vickers who was the man of the match against Havant. Their player-manager O'Brien didn't play against Wimbledon (0:2 away), but he's obviously noticed a couple of things they could improve because the performance against Havant was much better. They didn't score a lot of goals lately and a draw, even a goalless draw, is obviously a possibility here, but I'm pretty sure Dorchester will take something from this match. These odds should never be above 1.40 if you ask me.
(1.56 at Bwin, 1.53 at Paddy Power and also at BoyleSports btw, 1.50 at Expekt btw...) Read our review of Skeeve's service
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