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Weekend Wager Column - 23/01/2009 ************************************ I work as part of the team at the Secret Betting Club where we uncover exactly which experts, systems and tipsters you should follow to make money betting. As well as proofing dozens of tipsters we also include monthly articles on professional gambling tips and betting strategies. Every article and review we put together is also listed at our new member's website Money Maker Review. The Weekend Wager is designed to be your free guide to the forthcoming weekend's betting opportunities and features free betting advice and articles from a number of hand-picked betting experts. Keep a look out for The Weekend Wager hitting your inbox's every Friday afternoon. CONTENTS 1. Terry Says ******************************************************************************** 1. Terry Says One of the things that I always believe separates winning punters from the losers is the understanding of what offers a value price. With this in mind I always wonder who it is who bets down to 1.01 at Betfair and how it must feel to see these supposedly nailed-on bets go down in flames. For those of you not familiar with the concept of a ‘1.01’, it basically represents something at odds of 1/100, where you are effectively risking £100 to make a measly £1. The 1.01 issue was highlighted last week when the brilliantly named Topless made national news when jinking left and right and shaking off her rider to cost some backers a small fortune. Professional punter Dave Nevison alone was denied £200,000 when topless (or potless as it’s since been re-named) did the unthinkable and jettisoned the jockey. Aside from that during the race an absolutely whopping £48,891 was traded in-running at 1.01, with a further 75k matched at between 1.02 and 1.10! Now the Topless story made headlines around the world but these 1.01 shots are more common than you would think and have been the death of many a betting bank. Just this week Venus Williams had a huge amount traded at 1.01 before being put out by the little known Carla Suarez Navarro. Spurs to qualify for the Carling Cup was another 1.01 which was another game just 2 minutes from complete disaster before 2 late goals broke the hearts of plucky Burnley and no doubt saved the blushes of many a 1.01 backer. Spurs themselves earlier this year saw off another 1.01 when coming back very late on to draw 4-4 with Arsenal in late 2008. Of course if you can back 101 or more successful 1.01 shots in sequence before you get 1 loser, than that’s an overall profit. Balls of steel needed in what must be the ultimate test of nerves and confidence in your own methods as it doesn’t take much for it all to go belly up. Its not for me, that’s for sure, but good luck if you are involved! Until next Friday… Terry Allen 2. The Next Week In Betting The main talking point this week in Sport will no doubt be the Australian Open and whether or not Andy Murray can win his first Grand Slam. His price has drifted a little from 5/2 before the tournament to current 3/1 2nd favourite behind Roger Federer, who is quite possibly the most famous sporting ‘Roger’ the world is ever likely to see as I don’t recall it being on the list of popular baby boys names recently. Perhaps though we will see a spate of newborn baby ‘Andrew’s’ especially in Scotland as Andy Murray is looking good having cruised through to the 3rd round and is now best priced 4/1 with Sporting Bet to win Wimbledon. If you fancy him to do the business here in Australia it might be worth a look at that as if he wins, the 4/1 for Wimbledon won’t last long. Whatever happens it should be a barnstorming 2nd week of the tournament down under with the big guns (quite literally in Murray and Nadal’s case with those biceps) all looking strong. The romance of the FA Cup continues this weekend with a couple of tasty looking games and none more so than the East Midlands clash as Derby host Notts Forest on Friday night. No love lost between these 2 sets of supporters and Forest have been playing like a team with a weight lifted from the shoulders after Colin Calderwood was sacked. His replacement, Billy Davies is a shrewd manager at this level and I fancy them to get at least a draw which is 11/4 best priced with VCBet. Chelsea are playing like a team of strangers, especially when marking from set-pieces and are as short as 1/5 to beat Ipswich although the stand-out pricing is Man Utd 1/3 on to beat Spurs at home. Harry Redknapp is never happier when moaning about his squad being paper-thin and he has stated he will send a mish-mash team for the game. Manchester United will also be fielding a patched-up side with 8 defenders out as they are challenging on all 4 fronts. Over 2.5 goals in this game is best priced 8/11 with Sporting Bet, which doesn’t look bad considering Darren Fletcher will be at right-back and Ben Alnwick in goal. One of the busiest years of Cricket that the England team will ever embark upon starts on Sunday as they travel over to the West Indies for a 4 test series and ubiquitous one day tournament. Expect to hear plenty of moaning about ‘burn-out’ as they take on a huge schedule of intensive matches, despite which the big hitters of the team will still find 3 weeks or so to pop over to India to earn the odd million or two for the IPL. Give me Cricket ‘burn-out’ any day of the week I say for those kind of wages. Test series in the Caribbean between these two generally have plenty of incidents and although the Windies did OK out in New Zealand, I don’t think they will be a match for the tourists. The home team have some excellent players but still too many passengers in the team and unless they really raise their game, I think England will have too much quality overall. Backing England at 8/13 best priced with Paddy Power doesn’t really appeal to me though. My preference for a bet on this series is elsewhere as Andy Flintoff looks much better value to be the top English bowler at 7/2 with William Hill which looks worth an interest to me. I couldn’t have Steve Harmison at a similar price who is far too hit and miss these days. Perhaps Harmy has been priced up more on his performance last time he toured there, when was actually the top ranked bowler in the world, which is something he is far from being these days. Sometimes I wonder if he is even the best bowler at Durham, his county side! As for top English batsman, KP is very short at 9/4 consider all the shenanigans of the past few weeks and Alastair Cook at 9/2 with Boylesports appeals. Cook or ‘Chef’ as he is so wittily named by his team-mates is a guaranteed starter in all 4 tests and a class-act for such a young age. Ian Bell will be lucky to keep his spot in the team, Owais Shah is unproven at test level and Andrew Strauss has a tour to run and team to manage. Paul Collingwood is the only other of interest with maybe a small saver at 9/1 with Boylesports. Away from actual ‘sport’ there is plenty of betting going on as regards Dancing on Ice and Celebrity Big Brother, where the clear favourite to win is ‘mini-me’ Verne Troyer who is ridiculously short. I am not referring to his height though, more his price as he is 1/2 best priced to win with Betfred. Good luck with whatever your having a punt on this weekend. ******************************************************************************** Featuring up to date and full reviews of some of the most talked about tipping services (good and bad) 3. Tipping Legends Column Visit The Tipping Legends Website
4. The Winabobatoo Weekender Hereford 5, Oldham 0. I’m never one to hide the truth. Last week’s tip, Oldham, was a right howler. We have to allow for the unexpected in our odds’ calculations, as the unexpected certainly happens, and it can leave us with very serious egg on our face. The facts behind the match were extremely interesting....more on that in a second. One of my aims is to identify the teams who are most likely to create the greater number of chances in a game. Statistically, if you create the most number of chances, you have the better chance of winning. It doesn’t always follow that the team who does create the most chances actually wins, but it does pay to have them on your side. Looking at all matches in my database since August 2007, I can tell you that in the Hereford match, Oldham had the 6th highest number of shots at goal for an away team. They had 24 shots. Hereford had 20. Only 5 other away teams have had more goal attempts in a game than Oldham...but somehow Oldham failed to score. Four out of the other 5 away teams won, by the way. My last three bets this week have been Leicester to win at Yeovil (Won 2-0); Dagenham to beat Exeter (Lost 2-1) and Wrexham to beat Cambridge (Won 2-0). The shots at goal have all favoured the teams I have backed: Yeovil 8, Leicester 14; Dagenham 19, Exeter 10, and Wrexham 8, Cambridge 4. Even though Dagenham lost, there is comfort to be had from the fact that Exeter would not normally win the game when losing the shots result 19-10. It was the right bet to have, but the outcome was wrong on this occasion. One of my bets this weekend is Tranmere to beat Carlisle. 11/10 (2.10) was generally available earlier in the week, but my members have backed the game, and 11/10 is only available with BetFred now. All my ratings give a serious advantage to Tranmere and 11/10 is too long, relative to their true chance of winning the game. Have a bet on Tranmere to beat Carlisle at 11/10 (2.10) with BetFred Good luck with your betting. Mike Lindley (www.winabobatoo.co.uk )
Visit The Winabobatoo Website ********************************************************************************
Hi everybody, I'm finally having a very good month, let's hope the good run lasts forever, although this would be the first good run in history of betting to last forever of course. On a more serious note, here's the statistics for the ten free picks I've given you so far:
+7.5 units profit doesn't really look amazing, I agree, but the RoI is very good, 17.1% and only three bets were lost. After all, these were all free picks and if you staked £25 per unit, you would've made a nice little profit (£188 or even more, because in most cases you can find even better odds at Betfair or at some less known bookmakers) so far. Btw I've finally took some time to add an FAQ page to the website, you can check it out here: http://www.skeevepicks.com/index.php?page=faq. 24/1/2009 BLUE SQUARE PREMIER Lewes – MANSFIELD 2 (1.91 @Blue Square) 6 units Lewes are going to stay in the relegation zone until the very end of the season, there's no doubt about that any more, and it's been very difficult for them lately to field a competitive squad – because of both injuries and suspensions. This time they have three suspended players, defenders Cullip (their best player this season) and Pearson (on loan from Brighton) and midfielder Keehan (manager's son, he was very good in Lewes' last home match vs Havant, he even scored a goal). Something had to be done and Lewes' controversial manager Keehan decided to bring in a couple of players from Havant who can't even make it to the Havant's bench lately – midfielder Wilkinson started only six league matches this season (two of them back in August) and defender Butters started only three leagues matches (two of them back in August), he's been struggling with injuries and he's not the fastest player any more as he's 39 years old! Lewes had a terrible month – they have six defeats and an FA Trophy draw in the last seven, five league defeats in a row (conceded eleven, scored none), three league defeats at home in a row (0:2 to Stevenage, 0:2 to Woking, 0:2 to Eastbourne)... Sad times at Lewes. Mansfield have three wins in the last four (2:1 vs Weymouth, 3:1 at Kettering, 0:2 to league leaders Burton, 1:0 vs Crawley), a new manager (David Holdsworth did great at Ilkeston), a whole squad of new players brought in by Holdsworth in the last few weeks (including strikers Briscoe from Ilkeston, Duffy from Newport and Ameobi from Doncaster, defenders Mayo from Notts County and Garner from Ilkeston, experienced keeper Marriott from Rushden, midfielders Howell and Shaw from Ilkeston...) and although they're not the best away team in the league this season, they did manage to beat Kettering on the road and Lewes look helpless at the moment. I liked Blue Square's 4.00 on a handicap win, but the odds crashed down to 3.60 in the meantime and Lewes did bring in a couple of emergency loans, so it's six units on a normal away win for me. Coral's odds (1.73) are right, anything above that is bad odds compiling. (1.88 at Pinnacle and currently at Betfair btw, 1.83 at Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, StanJames, Victor Chandler...) Read our review of Skeeve's service
6. £300 in Free bets! We would like to spread some love at this time of year and what better way than with the opportunity to collect £500 in free bets or how about £100 guaranteed cash and a further 2 x £100 in free bets. Welcome to the world of spread betting. Yes all this free cash is currently available if you open new accounts with 2 main of the spread betting firms. If you know how spread betting works, then you will know that these free bets could be extremely lucrative, earning you much more than your initial stake and now we can find you 100% risk free bets to qualify for all of these offers too. First up SPORTINGINDEX who are now offering a massive free £300 bet (up until 2nd Feb) or a £100 straight cashback alternative, which means that you can actually be GUARANTEED £100 free cash, unless you choose to have some fun, and take their other option of free £300 bets! Mmmm, what a nice choice to have to make. The great thing also about SPORTINGINDEX is that they have regular offers for existing users too which have proved very profitable in the past, some of the games offers have been very lucrative over the last few months, so this is highly recommended. If you don't know about spread betting, then don't worry, we can explain everything. Spread betting bears no resemblance to the fixed or exchange betting which you will no doubt be familiar with, except that cash can be generated from the offers available on bet72.com Briefly, a spread firm will price up sometimes over 100 markets for certain events, like major football matches, and you will find most sports covered to varying degrees. As a quick example, let's look at a recent total corners market: Sporting Index set that market at 10-10.5 corners. What that means, is that if you felt that there would be less than 10 corners in the match, you would sell @ 10, or if you thought that there would be more than 10.5 corners, you would buy @ 10.5. Let's say that you staked £10 per corner, and there were 12 corners in the game. If you had sold @ 10, then you would lose 2x£10, while if you had bought, you would win 1.5 times your £10 stake. You can see from this example, that you can win and lose multiples of your stake, which makes spread betting a more risky alternative to fixed odds gambling, where you know exactly what you stand to lose in an individual bet. BUT, you don't need to worry about any of that, because what we are talking about here, is RISK FREE! Ok, here is some more info on the offer..... People tend to shy away from spread betting thinking that it is complicated and dangerous to do. Well to be honest we have found this one of the easiest offers ever as all you are doing is matching the buy and sell amount each time at close (usually exact matched) prices. IGSPORT So there you have it, what are you waiting for?
Risk Warning - Please ensure you understand the risks with sports spread betting as it involves a higher level of risk and you can lose more than your original stake. Remember to bet responsibly. Sporting Index is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority For more such offers sign-up to our regular Friday Freebie email. The Weekend Wager is brought to you by |
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