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Weekend Wager Column - 27/02/2009 ************************************ I work as part of the team at the Secret Betting Club where we uncover exactly which experts, systems and tipsters you should follow to make money betting. As well as proofing dozens of tipsters we also include monthly articles on professional gambling tips and betting strategies. Every article and review we put together is also listed at our new member's website Money Maker Review. CONTENTS 1. Terry Says ******************************************************************************** 1. Terry Says Nothing gets me more excited than stories of a big betting coup going off and it was great to see one on Weymouth last Saturday in the Blue Square Premier. Clued up gamblers placed over £1 million worth of bets on Rushden to beat Weymouth, who’s entire first team went on strike due to not being paid. The plucky Weymouth youth team were smashed 9-0 and the bookies took a major hit with even the Times seeing it as newsworthy enough for Page 9 (link here). Another attempt at a smash and grab raid in the Blue Square Prem was made on Kettering to beat Northwich on Tuesday night, who went from 5/4 to around 2/5 before kick-off with a major odds plunge. Northwich having lost their manager and 6 of their players were unbackable, but alas the game ended up a drab 0-0 draw, despite a last minute Northwich goal-line clearance. You can almost hear the huge sigh of relief from the bookies up and down the country. No doubt many people thought this would be another ‘Weymouth’ but Northwich are a perennial crisis club and have denied similar betting coups before. You can’t bet on either Weymouth or Northwich this weekend though as the bookies are running scared and wont be pricing it up. Betfair offers an escape route though with odds of 1.10 on York to beat Weymouth for the really desperate. 10% interest for a quick bet? Not for me I’m afraid and the Weymouth ship has sailed for now. I’ve long been banging on about non-league footy as a great place to squeak an edge and a couple of good quotes from that Times article back that up. Steve Wilson from the Racing Post is spot on (for once) when he says that “Nonleague football is one of the few sports where punters can get an edge on the bookmakers, they can have superior knowledge and the bookmakers can get caught with their trousers down.” The world and his wife knows about the Champions league games, the finer details of each player, the WAG’s that accompany them and the bottles of wine they drink but when it comes to Boreham Wood vs Tonbridge Angels could you say the same? Non-league tipster expert Skeeve is based in Croatia but he knows the amateur game in England inside-out, which is purely down to his thorough research and the amount of information available on the Internet these days. The bookies are lazy and spend no time on these leagues so regularly get exposed. Even Blue Square who sponsor 3 of the top tiers of non-league football often leave gaping holes in their odds. If you are interested in taking advantage of this further, then we have a number of experts that we monitor via our Secret Betting Club service who make money on lower league English and Scottish football. Before long you will soon know your East Fife’s from your Ebbsfleets! Until next Friday… Terry Allen 2. The Next Week In Betting The big match Football wise is on Sunday where Man Utd face Dirty Harry’s Spurs in the Carling Cup, with Fergie armed with his £300 bottle of red wine from the special one, promising to field some of his youngsters. I am never a big fan of placing a bet when there are so many uncertainties over the strength of the side, and if he picks a team full of Nani et all, I will wonder just how much of the wine he has drunk. Anything resembling his first choice team should have too much for Spurs but with United best priced 8/11 over 90 minutes with Bet365, it looks a risky one for me. Perhaps its best waiting to see the team 30 mins before kick-off before having a wager. Not a great deal of inspiring action in the Premiership this weekend with 5 odds on shots that really don’t appeal. Arsenal and Chelsea are best priced 4/9 and 1/3 to beat Fulham and Wigan respectively but these are 2 teams who have drawn at home against the might of Sunderland and Hull recently. Everton are a crazily short 1/2 to beat West Brom considering their injuries and Aston Villa have a very tired squad to consider the 4/9 to beat Stoke value. The interest for me lies with the outsiders and I wonder if Chelsea are going to be concentrating on the Champions league now, coupled with the fact that Drogba said the squad were on their knees in the last 20 minutes of their midweek game due to Hiddink’s attempt to improve their fitness. Wigan are 12/1 best priced with Bet365 to win although I prefer the +1.5 Asian Handicap at 1.99 with Pinnacle Sports. Elsewhere Middlesbrough look a good option at 3/1 Draw No Bet against Liverpool with Bet365, which means we get our money back if the game is a draw. Southgate’s men have shown a return to some semblance of form lately and the scousers will be without key men for this tie and had a tough game in midweek. Under 2.5 goals with Blue Square at 4/6 (1.67) also appeals, bearing in mind Boro have achieved this 9 times out of 13 at home this season, and Liverpool 8 times out of 13. That means anything over 1.53 is value, which is what we have here. The six nations returns this weekend with Wales off to Paris tonight where they are best priced 8/11 favourites with Totesport. The French on their day can be superb if totally unpredictable and I fancy them with a +3 handicap at evens with Bet365. There is the battle for the wooden spoon over at Murrayfield where Italy are looking to inflict their 3rd win in succession over the Scots and I like the look of them with a +10 handicap at 10/11 with Totesport. Lots of Creekeeet action as Geoffrey Boycott would say as both England and the Aussies are playing over the same 5 days and the Ashes comparison’s start here. The Aussies are best priced evens with Paddy Power to keep hold of the old urn, whilst the home side are as big as 9/5 with Sportingbet. Considering we have 2 teams here that struggle to take 20 wickets in a game, the current 11/2 from Hills on a drawn series jumps out at me. Pakistan also start their 2nd test against Sri Lanka next Thursday and I will be taking the 5/2 on the away team here. Pakistan did well on what was a road of a pitch in the 1st test but on Sri Lanka have more quality and a more settled team. Good luck with whatever you’re having a punt on this week. ******************************************************************************** 3. Tipping Legends Column Visit The Tipping Legends Website
4. The Winabobatoo Weekender Ever since I first started betting, I’ve been an avid record keeper. I recorded all my bets from day one, so I could see the true picture of where I stood with my bets, rather than where I thought I might be. It was painful at times as I struggled to get ahead, and I wish the evidence hadn’t been there for me to see sometimes! But without knowledge it is much more difficult for us to see what we are doing well and where we are going wrong. My football database has over 20,000 matches in it now, and is a far cry from the paper records I used to keep all those years ago. All my evidence over the years has been consistent in one particular area. The shorter the odds I bet at, the lower my percentage profit, and the longer the odds I bet at, the better things get generally. In my sphere of football betting a bet at longer odds is considered to be 2/1 and above. Shorter odds are considered to be anything that is odds on. The downside to betting at longer odds is that the losing runs are longer, but it is a pain worth suffering, as long as you have a sensible sized betting bank to cover the losing spells. My betting bank starts at 50 points, and I stake one point on each bet. I take out my profits when it goes above 50 points. I find this the best way to stake when betting in the price ranges up to 4/1 or 5/1, but a variable staking method is more suitable if you bet at odds bigger than 4/1 or 5/1. What I will aim to do between now and the end of the football season is to give you some bets at longer prices, but you must understand that the aim isn’t to back winners every week (although we hope we do) the aim is to make a bigger long-term profit. This week we will venture into the over 2/1 bracket and take Crystal Palace to win at Watford. They are available at 21/10 (3.10). They fall into a selection method that I have called the “Away Form System.” The “Away Form System” bets have given my members at Winabobatoo 70 bets this season. We have found 29 winners, and 41 losers, but because the odds are all 7/4 or bigger, we have got 89.95 points back from our 70 bets, for a profit of 19.95 points, which is 28% profit on turnover. Membership to my service closes for the season on Saturday 28th February, and limited places are going to be available for next season. Priority places for next season will be given to current members. There may still be some places available at the start of next season, but it is possible that membership could be full. Throughout the rest of this season, I will select one of the “Away Form System” bets for you here in this column, but please remember we are looking for long-term profits rather than games that give a high percentage of winners, so we could collect a few losers along the way. All successful bettors must take the long-term view, and not get de-railed by short-term losses. This is probably the single most popular reason why the majority of people incorrectly end up searching for “winners,” rather than looking for “value bets.” Have a bet on Crystal Palace to beat Watford at 21/10 (3.10) available with Ladbrokes and Paddy Power Good luck with your betting. Mike Lindley (www.winabobatoo.co.uk )
Visit The Winabobatoo Website ********************************************************************************
Hi everybody,
Another winning bet last weekend (I must admit that I've copy/pasted this sentence from the last week's column) – in fact the last two weekends at Skeeve Picks were absolutely amazing, 7-0-0 two weeks ago, 5-0-1 last week, +47.5 units profit in February (66.9% ROI). After an amazing run like that, I'll be satisfied with any kind of profit tomorrow, but on the other hand, I've spent a lot of time to find the best value bets in the Blue Square leagues (it's not just statistics, I always check the official websites, fans' forums, online editions of local newspapers, watch all the available match highlights...), so don't be surprised with another great weekend – after all, it would be pretty cool to break the +400 points barrier (I'm currently at +394.3).
As far as these free picks are concerned, it doesn't get much better than this:
Btw the membership and the waiting list are now both closed for the rest of the season (it ends in May), but if you want to be on the waiting list for next season, you know what to do. Just please don't get on the waiting list and then ignore my e-mail when I invite you to join – that's got to be the most frustrating thing for a paid service with a limited number of clients. If you get a chance to join and you don't really want to join anymore (people lose their jobs and don't want to bet anymore, people go on vacation to Florida, people go to France to spend more time with their sons), please send me an e-mail so that I could contact the next guy on the waiting list.
But that's the way it goes when you want to do everything by yourself – you're not just a guy that picks and wins; you're also a customer service, an accountant, a PR department and, if you're smart enough, your own biggest critic.
Will this free pick most definitely be another winning bet? Of course not, this is football, anything's possible. Do I think that the odds on a home win should be 1.91? Of course not, these odds are insane – shame on the odds compiler, another nice value bet for us.
28/2/2009
BLUE SQUARE SOUTH
HAYES – Newport 1 (1.91 @Victor Chandler) 4 units
Newport had a small renaissance in January, but now they're on another bad run (in fact the worst run this season) – three defeats in a row, four defeats in the last five (1:2 at Bath City, 2:1 vs Bognor, 0:1 to Maidenhead, 1:2 at Bromley, 0:1 to Eastleigh). They're one of the worst away teams in the league, 2-7-6, 13:19, they have three defeats, a goalless draw at one of the worst home teams in the league Worcester and a win at doomed Fisher in the last five away matches (0:3 at Wimbledon, 3:1 at Fisher, 0:0 at Worcester, 1:2 at Bath City, 1:2 at Bromley) and some major selection problems – midfielder Rogers has returned to Bath City, striker Mohammed has just returned to Forest Green, their standard right-back Jenkins who hasn't missed a single match in 2009 is suspended (Bignot came back so he will replace him, but that's just a plan B), all three central defenders Cook, Vickers and Cochlin picked up knocks against Eastleigh and are doubtful for this match (just like midfielder Cooper) and their only remaining senior striker Reid missed the last three matches/defeats due to injury and will definitely not be 100% fit even he plays (Newport played with only one striker against Eastleigh – and it was their defender Cochlin!).
(1.80 at BetFred, Bwin, Blue Square, Paddy Power, StanJames...) Read our review of Skeeve's service
6. The fastest £40 you’ll ever make!!
Those jolly nice chaps at Coral have decided to increase their free bet offer by a whopping 250%, from the usual £10 to a very tasty £25 to celebrate the upcoming Cheltenham festival. This offer is available now until the end of the festival on the 13th March and you can use it on any sport you like, not just the horses. Now Coral really is one of our favourite offers, it is instantly, stake returned, can be wagered at ANY odds and partner friendly too, wow. Needless to say we have this all covered by Oddsmatcher, or why not pick up some instant risk free profit now with our instant risk free bet of the day below and combined with Eurobet we are talking over £40 profit in less than 5 minutes, interested, then read on...... Fancy making over £41 in 5 minutes (silly question really), if fact it could be £82 in 10 minutes with these two offers are stake returned and partner friendly offers… Coral - Bet £25, get £25 free bet Euro Bet - Free bet upto £20 (20% of your first deposit - so deposit £100 to get £20) This will be the fastest £40+ you ever make……. Back Arsenal at Coral with £25 at 1.45 LAY Arsenal at Betfair with £25.71 at 1.46 (you will need £11.83 in Betfair to cover the bet) Just an 58p loss but a free £25 bet which we can cash out immediately for risk free profit and as it is stake returned we can use the same bet again so….. Back Arsenal at Coral with the free £25 at 1.45 LAY Arsenal at Betfair with £25.71 at 1.46 (you will need £11.83 in Betfair to cover the bet) A £24.42 profit whatever the outcome, so that is £23.84 instant risk free profit, fantastic! Here is the link to get signed up with (and remember this is partner friendly so that is double instant profit)….. Coral - Bet £25, get £25 free bet And if you haven’t used Eurobet yet, they are stake returned too so you can do the same again for their £20 freebie. Remember the value of the free bet is 20% of your first deposit upto a maximum of £20 free, so deposit £100 to get the full £20 freebie. Back Arsenal at Eurobet with £100 at 1.45 LAY Arsenal at Betfair with £102.84 at 1.46 (you will need £47.30 in Betfair to cover the bet) Just a £2.30 loss but a free £20 bet which we can cash out immediately for risk free profit and as it is stake returned we can use the same bet again so….. Back Arsenal at Eurobet with the free £20 at 1.45 LAY Arsenal at Betfair with £20.57 at 1.46 (you will need £9.46 in Betfair to cover the bet) A £19.54 profit, so that is £17.24 instant risk free profit, fantastic! Here is the link to get signed up with (and remember this is partner friendly so that is double instant profit)….. Euro Bet - Free bet upto £20 (20% of your first deposit - so deposit £100 to get £20)
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